On pricing risk

1. In 2012 you will see more pressure being brought to bear on explaining how you measure and price the risk in treasury and how that cost is apportioned to the business. It's part of a regulatory push that’s aimed at further scaling back mispriced risk;

2. This is not a bad thing and it will create some big opportunities for those who have their house in order;

3. The light at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train;

4. In the next few years, mark my words, there is a lot up for grabs;

5. For firms that can do this there will be big rewards. Not only will you be able to avoid some of the costly regulatory bear traps but you will be able to steal a march on the competition;

6. This will be a world where business can be done at sensible prices because less nimble players aren't there. It's happened many times before and will happen again. The key is timing and that will come;

7. In the meantime, if like me you believe your business is ongoing, you can tilt things in your favour ready for the "upwave";

8. Or as one of my past bosses told me just hire lucky traders!